State of US Mortgage Rates 2026

Annual report covering 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates, the mortgage-Treasury spread, historical context spanning 1976-2026, and rate-sensitivity analysis for homebuyers and refinancers. All data sourced from Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) via FRED. CC BY 4.0 — quote freely with attribution.

Headline figures

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States has spent most of 2026 in the 6.5-7.5% range, according to the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) reported via FRED series MORTGAGE30US. Year-to-date through Q1 2026, the average 30-year fixed reading is approximately 6.85% — meaningfully below the 2023-2024 peak of 7.79% (reached October 2023) but still 4+ percentage points above the 2020-2021 pandemic-era lows of 2.65-3.10%.

The 15-year fixed rate (FRED series MORTGAGE15US) trades at a roughly 75-100 basis point discount to the 30-year, averaging approximately 6.05% year-to-date 2026. The 30-year vs 15-year spread of 75-100 basis points has been stable since mid-2023 and is broadly consistent with the historical norm (typically 50-100 bps).

For context, the 50-year average 30-year fixed rate (1976 through 2026) is approximately 7.8% — meaning that despite consumer perception, current rates are roughly in line with the long-run historical norm. The "abnormal" period was 2009-2022, when rates spent more than a decade between 2.65% and 5.0% in response to extraordinary Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Headline weekly snapshot (data point as of survey week ending in May 2026, exact week varies; pull current via FRED MORTGAGE30US):

Historical context — 1976 through 2026

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey began in April 1971; the 30-year fixed average has been published weekly since 1976. The full historical series shows three distinct rate regimes:

• 1976 — 1986 (high-inflation era). Rates ran from 8.5% in early 1976 to a peak of 18.45% in October 1981 — the highest mortgage rates in modern US history, driven by Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker's monetary tightening to break double-digit inflation.
• 1987 — 2008 (disinflation era). Rates trended from 10% down to the low 5%s by 2003, settling in the 5-7% range through 2008. This was the "normal" range for an entire generation of homebuyers.
• 2009 — 2022 (extraordinary policy era). Federal Reserve quantitative easing and zero-interest-rate policy pushed rates to multi-decade lows, with the 30-year fixed falling below 5% for most of the period and reaching all-time lows of 2.65% in January 2021.
• 2023 — 2026 (normalization era). Aggressive Fed tightening (federal funds rate rose 525 basis points March 2022 through July 2023) drove mortgage rates back to the long-run norm of roughly 7%.

The 50-year average 30-year fixed rate is approximately 7.8%. Current rates are at or below that average — despite consumer narratives framing current levels as historically elevated.

The mortgage-Treasury spread

30-year mortgage rates are anchored to the 10-year Treasury yield, not the federal funds rate. The relationship is structural: mortgage-backed securities have approximately 7-10 year average lives (due to prepayment), so their pricing tracks intermediate-duration Treasuries. The "mortgage-Treasury spread" — 30-year mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield — captures the risk premium investors demand for mortgage credit and prepayment risk.

The mortgage-Treasury spread has averaged approximately 170 basis points (1.7 percentage points) over the past 30 years. Through most of 2026, the spread has been running 220-250 basis points — elevated relative to history. This wider spread reflects:

• MBS market dislocation — the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (balance sheet runoff) reduced the largest buyer of mortgage-backed securities, widening the spread investors demand to hold MBS.
• Prepayment risk asymmetry — at higher rates, refinance volume falls; mortgage durations extend; investors demand additional yield to compensate.
• Banking sector capital constraints — regional bank stress in 2023-2024 reduced banking-system appetite for MBS.

If the spread normalizes toward the 30-year average (170 bps), 30-year mortgage rates would fall by roughly 50-80 basis points even with no change in the 10-year Treasury — meaningful relief for homebuyers without any Fed rate cuts required.

What's driving mortgage rates in 2026

Three primary forces:

1. Federal Reserve policy expectations. The federal funds rate target range as of mid-2026 sits at 4.25-4.50% (after the FOMC's March 2026 cut). Markets are pricing 50-75 basis points of additional easing through year-end. Mortgage rates have largely already priced this — additional easing beyond expectations is what would move mortgages further.
2. Inflation trajectory. Core PCE (the Fed's preferred gauge per BEA) is running 2.4-2.6% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target. The pace of disinflation determines how quickly the Fed can cut. Persistent above-target inflation = sustained higher mortgage rates.
3. Treasury supply. US federal deficit projections drive Treasury issuance volume. Higher issuance = higher yields required to clear the market = higher mortgage rates downstream.

Payment math at current rates

Monthly principal and interest at current 2026 rates on a $400,000 mortgage:

Standard amortization formula: monthly P&I = P × [r(1+r)^n] / [(1+r)^n − 1], where P is principal, r is monthly rate, n is total payments.

Rate sensitivity — what a 1 percentage point move costs

On a $400,000 30-year mortgage, every 25 basis points (0.25%) of rate change shifts the monthly payment by approximately $66 and the lifetime interest cost by approximately $24,000.

A homebuyer locking at 7.0% who could have waited and locked at 6.0% pays approximately $93,000 more in interest over the life of the loan on a $400,000 balance — equivalent to roughly 2 years of monthly payments. This is what "rate timing" actually costs, in dollar terms.

Forecasting caution

We do not publish point forecasts of mortgage rates. The reasons are honest:

• Mortgage rates are anchored to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is a function of inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy expectations, Treasury supply, and global capital flows — none of which can be forecast accurately at horizons relevant to a homebuyer (6-18 months).
• Professional forecasters (Fannie Mae ESR, Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, Wells Fargo Economics) consistently miss mortgage rates by 50-150 basis points over 12-month horizons.
• What we can say with reasonable confidence: the directional trend depends on whether core inflation continues drifting toward 2%. If yes, rates likely drift lower over 2026-2027. If no, rates stay elevated.
• What we can also say: the structural fair value of the mortgage-Treasury spread is roughly 170 bps. Current spread of ~220-250 bps suggests room for spread tightening to deliver 30-80 bps of mortgage rate relief even with no change in the 10-year Treasury.

Honest summary: anyone telling you with confidence what mortgage rates will do over the next 12 months is selling something. We don't sell anything, so we can be candid: nobody knows.

Methodology and data sources

All rate data in this report is sourced from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), accessed via FRED:

• FRED MORTGAGE30US — 30-year fixed weekly average since 1976
• FRED MORTGAGE15US — 15-year fixed weekly average since 1991
• FRED DGS10 — daily 10-year US Treasury yield
• Freddie Mac PMMS — primary publisher, methodology documentation

PMMS surveys approximately 100 lenders weekly, publishing Thursdays at noon ET. Quotes are for prime borrowers with approximately 0.6 average discount points. The survey covers conventional conforming mortgages — FHA, VA, USDA, and jumbo products are excluded.

All payment-math examples use the standard amortizing-loan payment formula with no proprietary adjustments. Calculations can be reproduced using the CalcFi Mortgage Payment Calculator with the inputs shown.

How to cite this report

Suggested citation (APA 7th):

Salmisto, J. (2026). State of US mortgage rates 2026. CalcFi. https://calcfi-open-data-4a2bc1.gitlab.io/state-of-us-mortgage-rates-2026.html

For journalists quoting figures: all rate figures and historical references trace to Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. CalcFi is the analyst on the spread, sensitivity, and payment-math tables. Suggested attribution: "Analysis by CalcFi (calcfi.app) of Freddie Mac PMMS data via FRED."

This report is licensed CC BY 4.0. Quote freely. Use the tables. Embed the calculator widgets. Attribution: "CalcFi" with a link to calcfi.app.

Updated annually. Next edition: State of US Mortgage Rates 2027, expected May 2027. To be notified, see the CalcFi about page.